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October, 2005 Archives
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Chip Glut Could Make PCs Cheaper
Consumers hope the news in a recent CNET article is true. CNET says a chip glut at Intel could bring down the prices on PCs and laptops which have been falling now for the past couple years. But these price drops could be even steeper.
Is the mainstream market going to see that $100 PC that everyone has been talking about? Not quite yet, said Current Analysis senior analyst Toni Duboise. "All I can say is, watch the promotions... what you will see are extremely aggressive prices."
Potentially, the situation could lead to promotional prices of $199 for entry-level desktops with an Intel Celeron or AMD Sempron processor, 256MB of RAM, a hard drive with at least 40GB, and Windows Home Edition in the package. The PC would also be bundled with a 17-inch CRT display and, possibly, a printer, Duboise said. Approximately 18 percent of the desktops selling at retail at this moment are priced at less than $500 after rebate, she added.
Desktops with more processing power could drop even more in price because there is more "wiggle room" in the pricing according to the CNET article.
Midrange and high-end desktops and notebook PCs would have even more wiggle room, according to Duboise, meaning that mainstream PCs with Intel's Pentium 4 or AMD's Athlon 64 chip, 512 RAM and 80GB or 100GB hard drive could see price drops of 10 percent to about $583. Entry-level Media Center PCs with integrated graphics cards from ATI Technologies could also see price reductions, from $599 to $539, the analyst said.
Laptops prices are also expected to fall. It sounds like great news but consumers but the prices will have to be seen to believed as always.
Posted on October 28, 2005
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AOL Lays Off 700 Employees
EcommerceTimes reports that AOL is laying off 700 employees. Most of the layoffs are coming from AOL's customer call centers. AOL said its customers were becoming more savvy and no longer need as much support but that sounds like a stretch especially in the age of phising, viruses and other security threats. An analyst at Grey Consulting told the EcommerceTimes that the weakened AOL still has enough subscribers to be attractive to Google.
The AOL job cuts, which fall in line with similar cuts made periodically over the last few years, reflect a dropping user base that has been driven by a number of factors, Grey Consulting founder and principal analyst Maurene Caplan Grey told the E-Commerce Times.
The analyst, who doubted increased user savvy was behind the cuts, indicated a recent instant messaging deal for interoperability between Microsoft and Yahoo may have also contributed to the job cuts, and further subscriber loss is likely to increase the chances of an acquisition.
Grey added that, although its user base is dropping, AOL still retains a substantial subscriber base of millions, which may be attractive, particularly to the ever-expanding Google.
If not Google then one of the many companies that is trying to compete with Google might find a merger with AOL very helpful. Why not Amazon.com and AOL in the age where content, ecommerce and search are merging together?
Posted on October 27, 2005
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Will Phone Calls Eventually Be Free?
Reuters reports that Meg Whitman, the CEO of eBay, said that the cost of phone calls will trend toward zero over the next few years. eBay recently bought Skype.com, a service that provides free online phone calls, so that explains why eBay executives are thinking this will happen.
In a few short years, users can expect to make telephone calls for free, with no per-minute charges, as part of a package of services through which carriers make money on advertising or transaction fees, eBay's chief executive said on Wednesday.
Seeking to justify eBay's $4 billion purchase last week of Web-based communications phenomenon Skype Technologies, Meg Whitman countered criticism by a financial analyst during the company's quarterly conference call by agreeing with some of his points.
"The percentage of users that you can actually charge for (phone services) will actually go down, so I actually agree with that and we understood that when we looked at Skype," Whitman said in responding to the analyst's question.
"In the end, the price that anyone can provide for voice transmission on the 'Net will trend toward zero," eBay's top executive said.
Google is now also gunning for eBay with an upcoming classified and/or auction service as well as an online payment service to compete with PayPal. It looks like everything is on the table as the big players like AOL, eBay, Amazon.com, Yahoo and Microsoft compete for both users and transactions.
Posted on October 26, 2005
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Video iPod: A Threat to Podcasting and TV?
The new video iPod is receiving some positive reviews from around the blogosphere. New Cool Gadgets calls the video iPod the "complete mobile entertainment package." Cheap and Tiny says it is better than the Sony PSP. ShoppingBlog.com will be great for travelers. Engadget has a list of more reviews.
Another blog asks if the video iPod will be illegal in California. The most interesting subject related to the new iPod are the questions being raised about whether it will threaten podcasting or television. BusinessWeek's Blogspotting raises the question but doesn't see a threat to podcasts.
And actually, I think podcasting or whatever it morphs into over the next two or three years is here to stay and will remain popular. What was interesting about podcasting was that, while everyone was waiting for digital video for so many years, kind of like waiting for Godot, podcasting arrived. And it tapped this latent demand for being able to hear what you wanted when you wanted it. It unleased all these indie voices and encouraged the traditional media companies to let their content go mobile.
Om Malik has a post with a link to a Wall Street Journal article about iPod video downloads threatening ABC stations. Om writes:
Like the record labels, television stations are now lamenting the iPod, and are worried about lost revenues, reports the Wall Street Journal. Shouldn't they be worrying about lost audiences, thanks to bad programing, instead of blaming the technology. I agree with Mark Cuban when he says, "Bob Iger has saved Network TV ... By completely changing the economic model." This is the new economic model that takes into account that most consumption patterns are changing, and media like everything has to fit our supremely busy lives.
Technology that allows people to view and transfer films and tv shows digitally is a threat to television and cable networks. It means the production companies can go directly to the users. People are not far from being able to selectively download or stream in the movies, music, podcasts and other information they want without having to tune into a specific channel or network.
Posted on October 24, 2005
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The 100 Oldest Domains
Jottings.com has a list of the 100 oldest dot com domain names. Topping the list is Symbolics.com which was registered on March 15, 1985. Big computer and technology brands like IBM.com, HP.com, SUN.com, Intel.com and TI.com and are all in the top 20 of early registers.
Posted on October 20, 2005
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New Magazine for Robot Enthusiasts
A new magazine, Robot, has launched to cover the robotics industry. The magazine bills itself as a resource for both the layperson and the technical professional.
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Offer the "how to do it" for the robot enthusiast and robot hobbyist, as well as the "what's going on" in the expanding world of robotics for the interested layperson or technical professional.
A sample article on the site helps readers learn how to pick the best robot fighting design like those seen on BattleBots. Given the popularity of gadgets and robots, Robot magazine should find plenty of interested readers.
Posted on October 18, 2005
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PC Shipments Soar in Q3
News.com reports that shipments of PCs soared 17% in the Q3 of 2005 compared to 2004's Q3.
Shipments of personal computers grew by 17.1 percent during the third quarter of 2005, according to IDC, driven by the popularity of notebooks, low-cost systems and international sales. As a result, IDC also boosted its annual forecast for shipment growth to 17.1 percent, well over the 13.3 percent growth rate the research firm predicted in August.
One of the reasons for the huge growth in computer sales is that the lower price of PCs is making it easier for people to replace their machine with a newer, faster model. While the price cuts increase sales they also cut into manufacturers' profit margins.
Posted on October 17, 2005
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Explosive Web Growth in 2005
The BBC reports that a new study has found that the web has grown more this year than during the dot-com boom.
In the year to October the web grew by more than 17 million sites, says monitoring firm Netcraft.
This figure exceeds the growth of 16 million sites seen in 2000 when net fever reached its most intense pitch.
Netcraft said the rise was caused by small businesses going online, firms making the most of web advertising schemes and spammers.
The popularity of blogs has also contributed to the growth of the web. Spam websites also count because the study measures growth by domains and phishers and spammers tend to register numerous domains.
Posted on October 15, 2005
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MySQL 5 Close to Shipping
InfoWorld reports that MySQL is close to shipping Version 5 of its software.
The company is calling Version 5 its most significant upgrade yet. It adds a handful of features considered important for enterprises that have long been available from market leaders Oracle (Profile, Products, Articles), IBM (Profile, Products, Articles), and Microsoft (Profile, Products, Articles). Chief among them are triggers, views, and stored procedures.
MySQL has also changed the way its database performs some common tasks, such as error checking, to make it behave like other databases. The idea is to make it easier for a database administrator to switch from another platform, encouraging migrations. The "old" ways of doing things will still be an option, and the vast majority of current MySQL applications will run unchanged on Version 5, according to David Axmark, a MySQL co-founder who has the job title "open sorcerer."
The software will still be free while the company makes revenues by charging for support services. The article also says the new software may now compete with IBM and Oracle's enterprise management software.
Posted on October 13, 2005
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Apple to Release Video iPod Next Week
The BBC reports that Apple has now confirmed the launch of the much-rumored Video iPod. The new iPod will be available in stores next week. There will be two versions: one 30 GB and one 60 GB. The 60 GB will retail for $299 in the U.S.
Mr Jobs said the 30 GB iPod should be able to store 75 hours' worth of video and the 60 GB version twice that. Despite both versions having more storage on board they are thinner than the existing 20 GB iPod.
To give people something to watch on their video-playing iPod Apple is planning to make available more than 2,000 music videos on the iTunes store that will cost £1.89 ($1.99 in the US) each.
Apple has also set up a deal with US television company ABC to let Americans purchase episodes of shows for $1.99. The shows will be available the day after broadcast. There was no information about when, or if, this service would come to Europe.
The timing of the release is no coincidence -- Apple is clearly hoping for another iPod holiday success. An MSNBC.com story on the new video iPod has more about Apple's deal with ABC to sell episodes of shows like Lost and Desperate Housewives for the new iPod at $1.99 each at the iTunes website.
Posted on October 12, 2005
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Forrester Sees Slowdown in IT Spending
A News.com article reports on a new Forrester Research study that sees a drop in IT spending from +7% during 2005 and 2006 to only +2% during 2007.
The forecast is based on spending trends, which show that IT markets are driven mainly by overall economic growth and adoption of new technology. The current period of Internet adoption, which began in 2001, has seen overall tech spending averaging the 7 percent growth in nominal U.S. gross domestic product.
Forrester expects gross domestic product growth to slow over the next two to three years due to factors such as spiraling interest rates, rising energy prices and a likely drop in the housing market. This, in turn, will slow growth in tech spending as 2007 approaches.
Based on what Andrew Bartels at Forrester is saying it sounds like a must-have technology would be needed to kick IT spending back up into the 7% range.
"Technology spending is currently very brittle," Andrew Bartels, vice president at Forrester, said in a statement. "Without a 'must-have technology,' most businesses are only investing in technologies with tangible (return on investment). That means they will respond quickly if corporate revenues and earnings start to slow in an economic slowdown, which seems likely at some point in the next couple of years."
Endless security problems from spam and viruses, that force companies to continue to spend money, may be the only reason Forrester is not dropping IT spending into negative figures.
Posted on October 11, 2005
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Video iPod Rumors
Reuters has an article that shares rumors of an upcoming video version of the iPod. The article says that AppleInsider is speculating that an October 12th announcement could be a video iPod.
Many analysts have said Apple is all but certain to introduce a version of the No. 1 digital music player that can also play video. Most models of the current iPods, in addition to playing music, can also display photos and perform other functions with accessories that are sold separately.
"There's a whole generation coming up that doesn't have a lot in their checking account but will some day, who think this is a cool idea," said Roger Kay, president of market research firm Endpoint Technology Associates, referring to a video iPod.
"Apple Computer has begun production of a new version of its iPod digital. music player that will be capable of playing videos, AppleInsider has learned," according to a Tuesday post on the AppleInsider Web site. "Sources who claim to have seen the new iPod describe it as being similar to Apple's 60 GB iPod photo player, but several millimeters thinner."
The invitation itself from Apple gave no indication what the announcement might be, but in a separate post on Tuesday on AppleInsider, the site said: "Recent information suggests that Apple may be preparing to introduce a version of its iPod with video capabilities."
Speculation about a video iPod is nothing new. There has been so much speculation in the blogopshere that a video iPod is expected eventually as the next generation of Apple's popular device. They need to make sure any iPod video device does not have the kinks found in the iPod nano.
Posted on October 9, 2005
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Web-based Word Processor Written in C
The O'Reilly Rader has an interesting blog post about the code and platform behind Writerly, a new web-based word processor.
I spent a fun hour talking with Sam Schillace of Writely. We talked about the uptake (enormous) and different approaches to the idea of word processing on the web, but two things really stuck with me: platform and people. Every entrepreneur wants there to be a secret sauce for success -- if you use Ajax, or Linux, or tagging, or (insert delicious top tag du jour) you'll have a great product. Sam's secret sauce isn't platform.
That said, the platform is interesting. Writely is written in C# and deployed on Windows boxes. This isn't interesting because of "oooh, he's using The Enemy" or any nonsense like that, it's interesting because this makes it the first Web 2.0 success that I can think of that was written in .NET. That's an interesting datapoint in and of itself. The reason for choosing C#, other than "we had Visual Studio laying around", was the integrated debugging of browser and server components. He demo'd it for me, and it's mindblowingly useful. It is to Venkman as Venkman is to alert("foo has value " + foo).
More people seem to be using web-based software for things like event planning, lists organizing and now we have web-based word processors. The key here will be the security because not many people will use these kinds of tools if others can hack in and see their private files. More web-based tools are on the way: Sun has launched OpenOffice and Slashdot has Permalink | Blogs linking to this post: Bloglines | BlogPulse | Technorati
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Hackers Could Shut Down Cell Phones in Cities
A frightening New York Times article says it is possible for text hackers to jam cellphones and possibly even congest all of Manhattan.
Malicious hackers could take down cellular networks in large cities by inundating their popular text-messaging services with the equivalent of spam, said computer security researchers, who will announce the findings of their research today.
Such an attack is possible, the researchers say, because cellphone companies provide the text-messaging service to their networks in a way that could allow an attacker who jams the message system to disable the voice network as well.
And because the message services are accessible through the Internet, cellular networks are open to the denial-of-service attacks that occur regularly online, in which computers send so many messages or commands to a target that the rogue data blocks other machines from connecting.
By pushing 165 messages a second into the network, said Patrick D. McDaniel, a professor of computer science and engineering at Pennsylvania State University and the lead researcher on the paper, "you can congest all of Manhattan."
The research paper will eventually be posted online on smsanalysis.org according to the New York Times. Some information already available on smsanalysis.org talks about threats to cellular services.
Are larger attacks possible? Certainly. While the paper gives all of the necessary specifics, it would be theoretically possible to knock out cellular service for the continent with a data rate of approximately 370 Mbps. Such bandwidth could be harnessed from a moderately sized "zombie" network. Much larger Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks have already been seen, making this attack plausible.
So why have we not seen widescale attacks on the cellular network? The answer is that simply sending SMS messages to every possible number is not effective. A successful adversary would have to collect data on the phones available in a given area. While the full details of such "hit-list" creation is given in extensive detail in the paper, suffice it to say that all of the necessary data can be collected through a variety of means via the Internet.
Posted on October 5, 2005
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MIT Media Lab Developing $100 Laptop
MIT is working on a project to develop a $100 laptop
To achieve this goal, a new, non-profit association, One Laptop per Child (OLPC), has been created. The initiative was first announced by Nicholas Negroponte, Lab chairman and co-founder, at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland in January 2005. Here are some of the ways the MIT says it can keep costs down on the laptop.
First, by dramatically lowering the cost of the display. The first-generation machine may use a novel, dual-mode LCD display commonly found in inexpensive DVD players, but that can also be used in black and white, in bright sunlight, and at four times the normal resolution—all at a cost of approximately $35.
Second, we will get the fat out of the systems. Today's laptops have become obese. Two-thirds of their software is used to manage the other third, which mostly does the same functions nine different ways.
Third, we will market the laptops in very large numbers (millions), directly to ministries of education, which can distribute them like textbooks.
One of the prototype laptop designs (picture on right) shows a laptop with actual hand crank that can be used to generate power when electricity is unavailable.
CNET also has an article about the project. More blogs discussing the laptop project can be found here, here and here.
Posted on October 3, 2005
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